If a quarterback goes top-three, they almost always contend for it with Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, and Kyler Murray all bringing it home. History tells us, unsurprisingly, that the smartest bet for Offensive Rookie of the Year is a quarterback that was selected top-five. Bad news for tight ends and offensive linemen, but the voters don’t seem interested in them. Of the 15 winners, seven have been quarterbacks with four apiece being running backs and wide receivers. No player other than Dak Prescott - who is a complete outlier - taken outside of Day 1 and 2 of the NFL Draft has won the award since former Denver Broncos running back Mike Anderson in 2000.

The only non-first-round picks to win the award in that timeframe have been Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (fifth-round), New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (third-round), and former Green Bay Packers running back Eddie Lacy (second-round). The average draft position of the winners is 23rd overall. In that timeframe, 12 of the winners have been first-round picks with 10 of them being selected in the top-10 and seven in the top-five. Looking at the previous 15 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year winners (2008-2022), it’s been dominated by first-round picks. It may be absurd to start thinking about who could win these awards before any of these players have even signed their NFL rookie contracts, however history shows that there’s truly only a select few who will likely be competing for the accolades this fall. The 2023 NFL Draft concluded just a few days ago and the NFL season doesn’t kick off for another four months, but NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year odds are out.

Something Wicked by C.J. Baker